Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 4523 · DCA → BNA
departs 4:03 PM ET · arrives 4:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 77%
Mon 10/12 30%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 25%
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.