Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4588
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 4588 · BWI → ALB
departs 9:04 PM ET · arrives 10:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at ALB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ALB?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ALB that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ALB usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
ALB (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.