Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 4740 · MIA → BWI
departs 12:08 PM ET · arrives 2:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.