Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 4837 · FLL → HOU
departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 8:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 57%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15 43%
Fri 10/16 48%
Sat 10/17 34%
Sun 10/18 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
6pm departures from FLL are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
FLL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.