Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4837 · FLL → HOU
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 7:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Tue 10/13 30%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 43%
Fri 10/16 48%
Sat 10/17 34%
Sun 10/18 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from FLL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.