Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 818 · DCA → MDW
departs 6:38 PM ET · arrives 7:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15 32%
Fri 10/16 30%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at MDW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 433 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.