WN 998 · PHX → ELP

departs 6:50 PM MT · arrives 9:08 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

ELP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 998 · PHX → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?