Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 998
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 998 · PHX → ELP
departs 6:46 PM MT · arrives 9:06 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±8 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.