Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 225
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
XL 225 · MIA → PTY
departs 2:10 AM ET · arrives 4:11 AM EST
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at PTY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PTY?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into PTY at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PTY (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.