Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
Y4 1731 · IAH → GDL
departs 12:10 PM CT · arrives 1:37 PM CST
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
12pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.47 in
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.