Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
Y4 1731 · IAH → GDL
departs 12:08 PM CT · arrives 1:34 PM CST
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Arrivals into GDL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.