Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3415 · RIC → EWR
departs 2:38 PM ET · arrives 4:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 29%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 34%
Sat 10/17 28%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
RIC is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.