Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3415 · RIC → EWR
departs 2:38 PM ET · arrives 4:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 34%
Sat 10/17 28%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
RIC is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.