Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3502
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3502 · EYW → EWR
departs 2:24 PM ET · arrives 5:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 40%
Sat 10/17 30%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.