Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3502
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
YX 3502 · EYW → EWR
departs 2:15 PM ET · arrives 5:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 40%
Sat 10/17 30%
Sun 10/18 31%
Mon 10/19 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.