Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3509 · BGR → ORD
departs 9:26 AM ET · arrives 11:41 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BGR that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.67 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,067 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.