Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 3509 · BGR → ORD
departs 9:23 AM ET · arrives 11:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 12%
Mon 10/19 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.