Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3557
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3557 · GRR → EWR
departs 12:05 PM ET · arrives 2:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 21%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.