Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3557
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3557 · GRR → EWR
departs 12:05 PM ET · arrives 2:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.12 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.