Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3574
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3574 · EWR → YQB
departs 2:26 PM ET · arrives 4:09 PM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 20%
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 29%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at YQB more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YQB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at YQB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to YQB?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at YQB that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
YQB (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.76 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.