Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3574
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3574 · EWR → YQB
departs 2:25 PM ET · arrives 4:12 PM EDT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 21%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 29%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at YQB more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YQB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at YQB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YQB?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at YQB that day
↑
2pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YQB (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.