Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4343
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 4343 · LGA → BGR
departs 12:02 PM ET · arrives 1:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BGR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BGR?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BGR that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BGR (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.