Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4366
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4366 · MCI → ORD
departs 5:31 AM CT · arrives 7:19 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,067 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip 0.13 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.