Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4366
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4366 · MCI → ORD
departs 5:30 AM CT · arrives 7:19 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from MCI are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.96 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.