Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4377
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4377 · JFK → RDU
departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 10:21 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 6%
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.