Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4377
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4377 · JFK → RDU
departs 8:48 AM ET · arrives 10:51 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14 6%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↑
8am departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.