Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 4412 · BOS → PHL
departs 1:46 PM ET · arrives 3:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Mon 10/12 20%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.