Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4412 · BOS → PHL
departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 3:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.04 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.