Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4418 · AVL → LGA
departs 1:10 PM ET · arrives 3:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.