Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4418 · AVL → LGA
departs 12:56 PM ET · arrives 3:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.