Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4496 · LGA → BUF
departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 5:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 37%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 33 kt forecast at BUF that day
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.