Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4523 · DCA → MSN
departs 4:16 PM ET · arrives 5:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MSN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.