Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4569
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4569 · DCA → LGA
departs 3:12 PM ET · arrives 4:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 40%
Sat 10/17 22%
Sun 10/18 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.