YX 4596 · DCA → BNA

departs 10:55 AM ET · arrives 12:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4596 · DCA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?