Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4632
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4632 · DCA → BDL
departs 1:09 PM ET · arrives 2:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 6%
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BDL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BDL that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BDL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BDL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.