Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4646
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 4646 · BOS → DCA
departs 7:11 AM ET · arrives 9:16 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.02 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.