Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4730 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 2:23 PM ET (22 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

YX 4730 · DCA → LGA

departs 1:59 PM ET · arrives 3:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4730 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?