Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4763
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4763 · DCA → PIT
departs 7:57 PM ET · arrives 9:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.