Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4790
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4790 · ILM → DCA
departs 10:31 AM ET · arrives 12:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ILM is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.