Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 4806 · ROC → BOS
departs 7:07 AM ET · arrives 8:50 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 3%
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15 4%
Fri 10/16 6%
Sat 10/17 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.