Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4806 · ROC → BOS
departs 6:52 AM ET · arrives 8:31 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 4%
Fri 10/16 6%
Sat 10/17 6%
Sun 10/18 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from ROC are usually not late
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.