Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5626
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 5626 · CLT → BOS
departs 10:14 AM ET · arrives 12:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Mon 10/12 14%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.