tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5638 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow

YX 5638 · JFK → IAD

departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 5:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
16% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 6.7d 2d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to IAD?

  1. On time or early
    83%
  2. 15–30 min late
    8%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    5%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    2%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.