YX 5676 · BOS → RIC

departs 9:30 PM ET · arrives 11:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 9pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

RIC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5676 · BOS → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?