Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5689
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5689 · BOS → DCA
departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 5:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 31%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
3pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.