Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5724
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5724 · LGA → DCA
departs 7:15 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 27%
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 45%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.