Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5749 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 11:39 AM ET (27 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

YX 5749 · LGA → DCA

departs 11:20 AM ET · arrives 12:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5749 · LGA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?