YX 5809 · LGA → PWM

departs 3:15 PM ET · arrives 4:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at PWM that day

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PWM (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.72 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5809 · LGA → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?