Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5809 · LGA → PWM
departs 3:17 PM ET · arrives 4:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Tue 10/13 17%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
PWM (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.