Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5809 · PWM → LGA
departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 7:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 45%
Sun 10/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±9 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at PWM that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.67 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.